Airtel, Vodafone and Idea are likely to bear the brunt of a potential 16-17 per cent fall in telecom industry revenues in FY18 if newcomer Reliance Jio’s Rs. 303 per month ‘Prime’ offer finds maximum traction from next month, analysts and sector experts said.
The price-value equation of Jio Prime offer of 28 GB data at 4G speeds with unlimited voice calls to any network is the best in the market, and incumbent carriers would do well to closely match it, they said. Brokerage Kotak Institutional Equities even warned that it would be "foolhardy for incumbents to assume they can command material pricing premium in the marketplace versus Jio".
Kotak estimates "a potential ceteris paribus negative impact of around 16-17 per cent on industry revenue in FY2018" if Jio’s Rs.303/month offer appeals to customers with total monthly wireless spends of Rs. 200 or more. But it noted that the estimated dip in industry revenue could be restricted to 8-10 per cent if there is "ARPU sanity in the sub-Rs.200 segment of the market".
Experts agreed that market share gains in the lower end of the market would restrict potential revenue declines for incumbent carriers in 2017-18.
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